Besta deild

Besta deild produces an above-average scoring rate of 4.09 total goals per match across tracked fixtures in the 2026 Besta deild season. That equates to roughly 2.04 goals per team per game - a baseline figure used by StatsBrain to calibrate expected-goals output for every fixture in the division. Corner frequency averages 11.45 per game, reflecting the typical territorial and set-piece volume in this league.

Home teams average 2.64 goals per game in Besta deild compared with 1.45 for away sides - indicatinga consistent home-scoring advantage that the model weights positively for home-side expected goals. This home/away split is incorporated into StatsBrain's pre-match simulation engine for every Besta deild fixture.

The relegation battle is tight: FH begin the danger zone in 11th with 11 points, just 2 points behind KA Akureyri in safety. Thór prop up the table with 9 points and a 15:35 goal record after 14 matches.

Víkingur Reykjavík carry the strongest recent form in Besta deild with 5 wins in their last 5 league games (sequence: W-W-W-W-W). Short-term form sequences like this are weighted heavily in StatsBrain's fixture probability distributions. Conversely, Thór (L-D-L-D-L in last 5) sit among the division's coldest teams over the same window.

By squad market value, Víkingur Reykjavík lead Besta deild at €4.80m (1st in the table, 38 pts), ahead of Valur at €3.47m. StatsBrain stores Transfermarkt valuations alongside performance data to contextualise each club's results relative to squad investment.

StatsBrain publishes 6 active pre-match statistical projections for the 2026 Besta deild season. The next fixture on the calendar is Thór vs Víkingur Reykjavík. 1 of these 6 fixtures carry a model confidence score of 75 or above, indicating a clearer separation in the projected outcome distribution. Each linked match page includes the full win/draw/loss probability split, expected-goals estimates and simulated scorelines.

Over the last 20 completed Besta deild fixtures tracked on StatsBrain, home sides won 55% (11/20), draws made up 20% and away wins 25%. Those matches averaged 4.25 goals per game - the season-wide tracked average is 4.09, so recent scoring is closely aligned with the longer sample. Across the current upcoming slate, the model assigns an average 33% home / 23% draw / 44% away probability split - a direct comparison point against the observed 55% / 20% / 25% outcome mix from recent results.

Simulated scorelines across the upcoming Besta deild slate average 2.17 total goals per fixture, versus 4.09 from completed matches this season. The strongest current projection is Thór vs Víkingur Reykjavík (100% model confidence, simulated scoreline 0 - 2-3, probability split 0% home · 0% draw · 100% away). The model's dominant signal for that fixture is: Awaiting Data.

StatsBrain's Besta deild modelling layer combines league scoring baselines, home/away splits, standings position, recent form sequences and squad market values into large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Outputs are refreshed as new fixture data arrives and are designed for statistical analysis - not as certainties. Open any listed fixture for the complete projection breakdown, including expected goals and outcome probabilities.