Primera Division

Primera Division produces a defensively compact average of 2.38 total goals per match across tracked fixtures in the 2026 Primera Division season. That equates to roughly 1.19 goals per team per game - a baseline figure used by StatsBrain to calibrate expected-goals output for every fixture in the division. Corner frequency averages 8.77 per game, reflecting the typical territorial and set-piece volume in this league.

Home teams average 1.31 goals per game in Primera Division compared with 1.06 for away sides - indicatinga consistent home-scoring advantage that the model weights positively for home-side expected goals. This home/away split is incorporated into StatsBrain's pre-match simulation engine for every Primera Division fixture.

The relegation battle is tight: Atlético Progreso begin the danger zone in 15th with 13 points, just 5 points behind Danubio in safety. Cerro prop up the table with 13 points and a 10:30 goal record after 18 matches.

Deportivo Maldonado carry the strongest recent form in Primera Division with 4 wins in their last 5 league games (sequence: W-W-W-D-W). Short-term form sequences like this are weighted heavily in StatsBrain's fixture probability distributions. Conversely, Defensor Sporting (D-L-L-L-D in last 5) sit among the division's coldest teams over the same window.

By squad market value, Peñarol lead Primera Division at €40.98m (3rd in the table, 33 pts), ahead of Nacional at €18.30m. StatsBrain stores Transfermarkt valuations alongside performance data to contextualise each club's results relative to squad investment.

StatsBrain publishes 6 active pre-match statistical projections for the 2026 Primera Division season. The next fixture on the calendar is Wanderers vs Danubio. 2 of these 6 fixtures carry a model confidence score of 75 or above, indicating a clearer separation in the projected outcome distribution. Each linked match page includes the full win/draw/loss probability split, expected-goals estimates and simulated scorelines.

Over the last 20 completed Primera Division fixtures tracked on StatsBrain, home sides won 45% (9/20), draws made up 20% and away wins 35%. Those matches averaged 2.15 goals per game - the season-wide tracked average is 2.38, so recent scoring is closely aligned with the longer sample. Across the current upcoming slate, the model assigns an average 31% home / 25% draw / 44% away probability split - a direct comparison point against the observed 45% / 20% / 35% outcome mix from recent results.

Simulated scorelines across the upcoming Primera Division slate average 1.17 total goals per fixture, versus 2.38 from completed matches this season. The strongest current projection is Cerro vs Peñarol (86% model confidence, simulated scoreline 0 - 1-2, probability split 0% home · 14% draw · 86% away).

StatsBrain's Primera Division modelling layer combines league scoring baselines, home/away splits, standings position, recent form sequences and squad market values into large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Outputs are refreshed as new fixture data arrives and are designed for statistical analysis - not as certainties. Open any listed fixture for the complete projection breakdown, including expected goals and outcome probabilities.