Serie B

Serie B produces a defensively compact average of 2.28 total goals per match across tracked fixtures in the 2026 Serie B season. That equates to roughly 1.14 goals per team per game - a baseline figure used by StatsBrain to calibrate expected-goals output for every fixture in the division. Corner frequency averages 9.99 per game, reflecting the typical territorial and set-piece volume in this league.

Home teams average 1.28 goals per game in Serie B compared with 1.01 for away sides - indicatinga consistent home-scoring advantage that the model weights positively for home-side expected goals. This home/away split is incorporated into StatsBrain's pre-match simulation engine for every Serie B fixture.

The relegation battle is tight: Londrina begin the danger zone in 18th with 8 points, just 2 points behind Avaí in safety. América Mineiro prop up the table with 3 points and a 6:22 goal record after 11 matches.

Sport Recife carry the strongest recent form in Serie B with 4 wins in their last 5 league games (sequence: W-W-L-W-W). Short-term form sequences like this are weighted heavily in StatsBrain's fixture probability distributions. Conversely, Botafogo SP (D-L-L-L-D in last 5) sit among the division's coldest teams over the same window.

By squad market value, Fortaleza lead Serie B at €34.40m (5th in the table, 18 pts), ahead of Sport Recife at €22.45m. StatsBrain stores Transfermarkt valuations alongside performance data to contextualise each club's results relative to squad investment.

StatsBrain publishes 3 active pre-match statistical projections for the 2026 Serie B season. The next fixture on the calendar is Operário PR vs Juventude. 1 of these 3 fixtures carry a model confidence score of 75 or above, indicating a clearer separation in the projected outcome distribution. Each linked match page includes the full win/draw/loss probability split, expected-goals estimates and simulated scorelines.

Over the last 20 completed Serie B fixtures tracked on StatsBrain, home sides won 40% (8/20), draws made up 20% and away wins 40%. Those matches averaged 2.20 goals per game - the season-wide tracked average is 2.28, so recent scoring is closely aligned with the longer sample. Across the current upcoming slate, the model assigns an average 40% home / 27% draw / 32% away probability split - a direct comparison point against the observed 40% / 20% / 40% outcome mix from recent results.

Simulated scorelines across the upcoming Serie B slate average 1.00 total goals per fixture, versus 2.28 from completed matches this season. The strongest current projection is Criciúma vs Londrina (77% model confidence, simulated scoreline 1-2 - 0, probability split 77% home · 23% draw · 0% away). The model's dominant signal for that fixture is: Awaiting Data.

StatsBrain's Serie B modelling layer combines league scoring baselines, home/away splits, standings position, recent form sequences and squad market values into large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Outputs are refreshed as new fixture data arrives and are designed for statistical analysis - not as certainties. Open any listed fixture for the complete projection breakdown, including expected goals and outcome probabilities.