Serie B

Serie B produces a defensively compact average of 2.31 total goals per match across tracked fixtures in the 2026 Serie B season. That equates to roughly 1.16 goals per team per game - a baseline figure used by StatsBrain to calibrate expected-goals output for every fixture in the division. Corner frequency averages 10.24 per game, reflecting the typical territorial and set-piece volume in this league.

Home teams average 1.59 goals per game in Serie B compared with 0.72 for away sides - indicatinga consistent home-scoring advantage that the model weights positively for home-side expected goals. This home/away split is incorporated into StatsBrain's pre-match simulation engine for every Serie B fixture.

The relegation battle is tight: Avaí begin the danger zone in 18th with 17 points, just 2 points behind Ceará in safety. Ponte Preta prop up the table with 8 points and a 12:35 goal record after 18 matches.

Criciúma carry the strongest recent form in Serie B with 5 wins in their last 5 league games (sequence: W-W-W-W-W). Short-term form sequences like this are weighted heavily in StatsBrain's fixture probability distributions. Conversely, São Bernardo (L-L-L-D-D in last 5) sit among the division's coldest teams over the same window.

By squad market value, Fortaleza lead Serie B at €34.40m (4th in the table, 31 pts), ahead of Sport Recife at €22.45m. StatsBrain stores Transfermarkt valuations alongside performance data to contextualise each club's results relative to squad investment.

StatsBrain publishes 16 active pre-match statistical projections for the 2026 Serie B season. The next fixture on the calendar is Juventude vs Cuiabá. 3 of these 16 fixtures carry a model confidence score of 75 or above, indicating a clearer separation in the projected outcome distribution. Each linked match page includes the full win/draw/loss probability split, expected-goals estimates and simulated scorelines.

Over the last 20 completed Serie B fixtures tracked on StatsBrain, home sides won 40% (8/20), draws made up 45% and away wins 15%. Those matches averaged 2.30 goals per game - the season-wide tracked average is 2.31, so recent scoring is closely aligned with the longer sample. Across the current upcoming slate, the model assigns an average 45% home / 26% draw / 29% away probability split - a direct comparison point against the observed 40% / 45% / 15% outcome mix from recent results.

Simulated scorelines across the upcoming Serie B slate average 1.44 total goals per fixture, versus 2.31 from completed matches this season. The strongest current projection is Ponte Preta vs Goiás (100% model confidence, simulated scoreline 0 - 2-3, probability split 0% home · 0% draw · 100% away). The model's dominant signal for that fixture is: Awaiting Data.

StatsBrain's Serie B modelling layer combines league scoring baselines, home/away splits, standings position, recent form sequences and squad market values into large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Outputs are refreshed as new fixture data arrives and are designed for statistical analysis - not as certainties. Open any listed fixture for the complete projection breakdown, including expected goals and outcome probabilities.