Serie D

Serie D produces a defensively compact average of 2.15 total goals per match across tracked fixtures in the 2026 Serie D season. That equates to roughly 1.07 goals per team per game - a baseline figure used by StatsBrain to calibrate expected-goals output for every fixture in the division. Corner frequency averages 8.58 per game, reflecting the typical territorial and set-piece volume in this league.

Home teams average 1.50 goals per game in Serie D compared with 0.65 for away sides - indicatinga consistent home-scoring advantage that the model weights positively for home-side expected goals. This home/away split is incorporated into StatsBrain's pre-match simulation engine for every Serie D fixture.

The relegation battle is tight: Oratório begin the danger zone in 94th with 0 points, just 0 points behind Porto BA in safety. Humaitá prop up the table with 0 points and a 0:17 goal record after 2 matches.

América RN carry the strongest recent form in Serie D with 5 wins in their last 5 league games (sequence: W-W-W-W-W). Short-term form sequences like this are weighted heavily in StatsBrain's fixture probability distributions. Conversely, Ceilândia (D-D-L-D in last 4) sit among the division's coldest teams over the same window.

StatsBrain publishes 8 active pre-match statistical projections for the 2026 Serie D season. The next fixture on the calendar is ABC vs Luverdense. 2 of these 8 fixtures carry a model confidence score of 75 or above, indicating a clearer separation in the projected outcome distribution. Each linked match page includes the full win/draw/loss probability split, expected-goals estimates and simulated scorelines.

Over the last 20 completed Serie D fixtures tracked on StatsBrain, home sides won 65% (13/20), draws made up 30% and away wins 5%. Those matches averaged 2.00 goals per game - the season-wide tracked average is 2.15, so recent scoring is closely aligned with the longer sample. Across the current upcoming slate, the model assigns an average 38% home / 27% draw / 35% away probability split - a direct comparison point against the observed 65% / 30% / 5% outcome mix from recent results.

Simulated scorelines across the upcoming Serie D slate average 0.63 total goals per fixture, versus 2.15 from completed matches this season. The strongest current projection is CSA vs São Luiz (91% model confidence, simulated scoreline 1-2 - 0, probability split 91% home · 9% draw · 0% away). The model's dominant signal for that fixture is: Awaiting Data.

StatsBrain's Serie D modelling layer combines league scoring baselines, home/away splits, standings position, recent form sequences and squad market values into large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Outputs are refreshed as new fixture data arrives and are designed for statistical analysis - not as certainties. Open any listed fixture for the complete projection breakdown, including expected goals and outcome probabilities.