Besta deild

The relegation battle is tight: Thór begin the danger zone in 11th with 8 points, just 2 points behind KA Akureyri in safety. FH prop up the table with 7 points and a 13:26 goal record after 12 matches.

Víkingur Reykjavík carry the strongest recent form in Besta deild with 5 wins in their last 5 league games (sequence: W-W-W-W-W). Short-term form sequences like this are weighted heavily in StatsBrain's fixture probability distributions. Conversely, KA Akureyri (L-L-L-L-L in last 5) sit among the division's coldest teams over the same window.

By squad market value, Víkingur Reykjavík lead Besta deild at €4.80m (1st in the table, 35 pts), ahead of Valur at €3.47m. StatsBrain stores Transfermarkt valuations alongside performance data to contextualise each club's results relative to squad investment.

StatsBrain publishes 6 active pre-match statistical projections for the 2026 Besta deild season. The next fixture on the calendar is Thór vs KR Reykjavík. 2 of these 6 fixtures carry a model confidence score of 75 or above, indicating a clearer separation in the projected outcome distribution. Each linked match page includes the full win/draw/loss probability split, expected-goals estimates and simulated scorelines.

Over the last 20 completed Besta deild fixtures tracked on StatsBrain, home sides won 35% (7/20), draws made up 20% and away wins 45%. Those matches averaged 4.20 goals per game. Across the current upcoming slate, the model assigns an average 32% home / 20% draw / 48% away probability split - a direct comparison point against the observed 35% / 20% / 45% outcome mix from recent results.

Simulated scorelines across the upcoming Besta deild slate average 2.17 total goals per fixture. The strongest current projection is Víkingur Reykjavík vs KA Akureyri (98% model confidence, simulated scoreline 2-3 - 0, probability split 98% home · 2% draw · 0% away). The model's dominant signal for that fixture is: Awaiting Data.

StatsBrain's Besta deild modelling layer combines league scoring baselines, home/away splits, standings position, recent form sequences and squad market values into large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Outputs are refreshed as new fixture data arrives and are designed for statistical analysis - not as certainties. Open any listed fixture for the complete projection breakdown, including expected goals and outcome probabilities.