Serie D

Serie D produces a moderate scoring rate of 2.63 total goals per match across tracked fixtures in the 2026 Serie D season. That equates to roughly 1.31 goals per team per game - a baseline figure used by StatsBrain to calibrate expected-goals output for every fixture in the division. Corner frequency averages 9.42 per game, reflecting the typical territorial and set-piece volume in this league.

Home teams average 1.59 goals per game in Serie D compared with 1.03 for away sides - indicatinga consistent home-scoring advantage that the model weights positively for home-side expected goals. This home/away split is incorporated into StatsBrain's pre-match simulation engine for every Serie D fixture.

The relegation battle is tight: Oratório begin the danger zone in 94th with 0 points, just 0 points behind Porto BA in safety. Humaitá prop up the table with 0 points and a 0:17 goal record after 2 matches.

Decisao carry the strongest recent form in Serie D with 1 win in their last 3 league games (sequence: W-D-L). Short-term form sequences like this are weighted heavily in StatsBrain's fixture probability distributions. Conversely, Treze (L-D-L in last 3) sit among the division's coldest teams over the same window.

StatsBrain publishes 30 active pre-match statistical projections for the 2026 Serie D season. The next fixture on the calendar is EC São José vs Santa Catarina. 13 of these 30 fixtures carry a model confidence score of 75 or above, indicating a clearer separation in the projected outcome distribution. Each linked match page includes the full win/draw/loss probability split, expected-goals estimates and simulated scorelines.

Over the last 20 completed Serie D fixtures tracked on StatsBrain, home sides won 50% (10/20), draws made up 30% and away wins 20%. Those matches averaged 3.35 goals per game - the season-wide tracked average is 2.63, a slightly higher short-term scoring rate than the full-season baseline. Across the current upcoming slate, the model assigns an average 40% home / 22% draw / 39% away probability split - a direct comparison point against the observed 50% / 30% / 20% outcome mix from recent results.

Simulated scorelines across the upcoming Serie D slate average 1.10 total goals per fixture, versus 2.63 from completed matches this season. The strongest current projection is Altos vs ABC (100% model confidence, simulated scoreline 0 - 3-4, probability split 0% home · 0% draw · 100% away). The model's dominant signal for that fixture is: Awaiting Data.

StatsBrain's Serie D modelling layer combines league scoring baselines, home/away splits, standings position, recent form sequences and squad market values into large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. Outputs are refreshed as new fixture data arrives and are designed for statistical analysis - not as certainties. Open any listed fixture for the complete projection breakdown, including expected goals and outcome probabilities.