Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia La Plata — Statistical Analysis, Historical Data & AI Match Projections
Liga Profesional de Fútbol2026-05-11 · 03:30
Vélez Sarsfield€85.38mAlternative high-probability score range based on the stats. The main score above remains the primary StatsBrain AI statistical projection.
Gimnasia La Plata€25.13mWelcome to 'El Fortín', the iconic Estadio José Amalfitani, home of Vélez Sarsfield. Tonight, a clash steeped in history unfolds as 'El Fortín', a true giant of Argentine football with a Libertadores title to their name, hosts Gimnasia La Plata. These are two established top-flight clubs, guaranteeing an intense, passionate encounter. Our model reveals a fascinating tactical dynamic. Despite Vélez's 51% expected possession, Gimnasia holds a 38.14% win probability and a higher 1.08 xG capability. This suggests Gimnasia will be more effective with less ball time, perhaps capitalizing on transitions. We foresee Gimnasia dictating the game's decisive moments, securing a narrow outcome.
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente Rivadavia | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 30:17 | 34 | WDL |
| 2 |  Estudiantes | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | 31 | WDW |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | 30 | WWW |
| 4 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22:12 | 29 | LWL |
| 5 |  Belgrano | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 18:13 | 29 | LWW |
| 6 |  Argentinos Juniors | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17:13 | 29 | WWL |
| 7 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | 28 | DDD |
| 8 |  Rosario Central | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20:16 | 28 | WWD |
| 9 |  Talleres Córdoba | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 17:14 | 26 | DDL |
| 10 | Gimnasia La Plata | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19:19 | 26 | WWW |
| 11 |  Unión Santa Fe | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 26:21 | 24 | DDW |
| 12 |  Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | 24 | WLW |
| 13 |  Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | 24 | LDD |
| 14 | Huracán | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 17:13 | 22 | DLD |
| 15 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 22 | DWL |
| 16 |  Racing Club | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17:15 | 21 | DDD |
| 17 | Barracas Central | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 | DDL |
| 18 |  Instituto | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 21 | LDW |
| 19 | Tigre | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 18:15 | 20 | DLD |
| 20 |  Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | 19 | LLL |
| 21 | Sarmiento | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13:20 | 19 | LWL |
| 22 |  Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | 19 | WLW |
| 23 | Banfield | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 17:19 | 18 | DDW |
| 24 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | 16 | LLL |
| 25 | Central Cordoba SdE | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | 16 | WDL |
| 26 |  Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | 15 | WDD |
| 27 | Atlético Tucumán | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15:20 | 14 | LDW |
| 28 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | 11 | LWD |
| 29 | Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6:19 | 8 | DLD |
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5:24 | 5 | LLL |
Vélez SarsfieldGimnasia La PlataRecent results in Liga Profesional de Fútbol
League →- 14 MayRiver Plate2 – 0Gimnasia La Plata
- 12 MayBelgrano2 – 0Unión Santa Fe
- 10 MayEstudiantes0 – 1Racing Club
- 10 MayRosario Central3 – 1Independiente
- 10 MayArgentinos Juniors2 – 0Lanús
- 10 MayIndependiente Rivadavia1 – 2Unión Santa Fe
- 9 MayTalleres Córdoba0 – 1Belgrano
- 5 MayEstudiantes de Río Cuarto0 – 2Instituto
- 4 MayVélez Sarsfield1 – 1Newell's Old Boys
- 4 MayGimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza2 – 1Defensa y Justicia
Analysis and simulations are produced by the StatsBrain AI engine and reviewed by our editorial team. Learn how we model outcomes in our methodology and who publishes StatsBrain on About.