Toluca - AI Match Simulations, Performance Trends & Statistical Data
Team Overview · Liga MX
Recent form (last 5)
Toluca have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats across their last 6 Liga MX matches (17% win rate) - a below-average performance trend over this sample. That return of 4 points from a possible 18 represents a below-average points conversion rate - a factor the StatsBrain model flags as a short-term performance concern.
League Standings · Liga MX · 2025/2026
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GGoals | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cruz Azul | 44 | 24 | 16 | 4 | 78:48 | 88 | |
| 2 | Toluca | 42 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 78:43 | 77 | |
| 3 |  Tigres UANL | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 75:44 | 72 | |
| 4 |  Guadalajara | 40 | 21 | 7 | 12 | 70:49 | 70 | |
| 5 |  Pachuca | 40 | 19 | 8 | 13 | 54:44 | 65 | |
| 6 |  América | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 61:44 | 64 | |
| 7 |  Pumas UNAM | 41 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 67:54 | 63 | |
| 8 |  Monterrey | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 61:58 | 55 | |
| 9 |  Tijuana | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 54:46 | 53 | |
| 10 |  Juárez | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 57:66 | 46 | |
| 11 |  Atlas | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 42:57 | 43 | |
| 12 |  Querétaro | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36:50 | 40 | |
| 13 |  Necaxa | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 43:57 | 35 | |
| 14 |  León | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 36:63 | 35 | |
| 15 |  Atlético San Luis | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 49:56 | 34 | |
| 16 |  Santos Laguna | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 42:66 | 32 | |
| 17 |  Mazatlán | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 42:66 | 29 | |
| 18 |  Puebla | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 34:68 | 25 |
Team Analysis · Liga MX
Over their last 10 Liga MX fixtures, Toluca have scored 14 goals (1.4 per match) - below-league-average attacking efficiency - and conceded 15 (1.5 per match), reflecting a defensive efficiency within acceptable thresholds. A negative goal difference of -1 over this window is a risk signal factored into the StatsBrain model's defensive probability distributions.
Home fixture record (last 5 Liga MX matches): 2W–2D–1L - 40% home win rate; away fixture record (last 5 matches): 0W–1D–4L - 0% away win rate. The pronounced gap between home and away win rates signals a strong home advantage - a variable that StatsBrain's location-adjusted model weights heavily.
Statistical Modelling · Liga MX
StatsBrain's Toluca modelling layer merges league scoring baselines, venue-adjusted home/away splits, standings position, recent form and squad market value into Monte Carlo simulations. Outputs are refreshed as new fixture data arrives and are intended for statistical analysis - not as certainties. Open the next fixture page for the complete projection breakdown.
Upcoming Match Projections · Toluca
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Recent Results · Toluca
| Category | HOME | AWAY | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Goals | 1.88 | 1.00 | 2.88 |
| Average Corners | 4.50 | 4.75 | 9.25 |
Frequently Asked Questions · Toluca
9What is Toluca's recent form?
Across their last 6 Liga MX fixtures, Toluca have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 4 defeats - a 17% win rate over that sample. StatsBrain's model weights this short-term trend in its outcome probability distributions.
How many goals does Toluca score per game?
Toluca have scored an average of 1.40 goals per match across their last 10 Liga MX fixtures. Over the same sample they concede an average of 1.50 goals per game.
What is Toluca's home record?
In their last 10 home Liga MX fixtures, Toluca have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 - a 60% home win rate. They average 1.8 goals per home match over that period.
What is Toluca's away record?
Away from home, Toluca have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 Liga MX away fixtures - a 30% away win rate. They score an average of 1.2 goals per away match.