Nacional vs Cerro — Statistical Analysis, Historical Data & AI Match Projections
Primera Division2026-05-11 · 01:30
Nacional€18.30mAlternative high-probability score range based on the stats. The main score above remains the primary StatsBrain AI statistical projection.
Cerro€5.78mWelcome to the iconic Gran Parque Central, fortress of Club Nacional de Football. Nacional, one of Uruguay's most decorated clubs, steeped in history and continental success, prepares to host traditional Montevideo rivals, Cerro. This fixture, always rich in local rivalry, promises a compelling contest. Our advanced models project Nacional as clear favorites, with a 72.51% win probability. Expected possession of 56% suggests they will control tempo, while their 1.6 xG versus Cerro's 0.63 indicates a significant offensive edge. Expect Nacional to dominate proceedings, creating superior chances, leading to a probable home victory.
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | Goals | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Racing | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23:14 | 31 | WDL |
| 2 |  Albion | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26:16 | 28 | WWW |
| 3 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 22:15 | 26 | DLW |
| 4 |  Peñarol | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20:14 | 24 | DLD |
| 5 |  Central Español | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23:22 | 24 | WLW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 20:17 | 21 | DWD |
| 7 |  Defensor Sporting | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 12:9 | 21 | DWD |
| 8 |  Montevideo City Torque | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20:15 | 20 | DWD |
| 9 | Nacional | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 22:21 | 19 | WLL |
| 10 |  Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17:21 | 18 | WLL |
| 11 |  Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 15:21 | 18 | WLD |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14:16 | 17 | LLW |
| 13 |  Boston River | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 13:18 | 17 | WLW |
| 14 |  Juventud | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15:21 | 12 | DDW |
| 15 |  Atlético Progreso | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | 10 | WLL |
| 16 | Cerro | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8:20 | 10 | DLL |
NacionalCerroUpcoming in Primera Division
League →Recent results in Primera Division
League →- 16 MayPeñarol2 – 1Liverpool
- 16 MayJuventud2 – 0Atlético Progreso
- 16 MayBoston River4 – 1Cerro
- 15 MayMontevideo City Torque1 – 2Nacional
- 11 MayCerro Largo2 – 3Peñarol
- 11 MayDeportivo Maldonado2 – 1Boston River
- 10 MayMontevideo City Torque2 – 1Atlético Progreso
- 10 MayDefensor Sporting1 – 2Juventud
- 9 MayCentral Español2 – 0Racing
- 9 MayDanubio0 – 1Albion
Analysis and simulations are produced by the StatsBrain AI engine and reviewed by our editorial team. Learn how we model outcomes in our methodology and who publishes StatsBrain on About.